Yokohama FC 2–0 Vissel Kobe: Result & Stats

Yokohama FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vissel Kobe

8/6/2023

J1 League · Round 22NHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Yokohama FC30%

×Draw26%

Vissel Kobe44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yokohama FCExpected goals in this matchVissel Kobe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.46

Yokohama FC

1.17

Vissel Kobe

1.46

Vissel Kobe creates 25% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 148 away

1.00

creates per match

1.42

1.49

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Yokohama FC

1.00

Vissel Kobe

1.42

allows per match

Yokohama FC

1.49

Vissel Kobe

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

Vissel Kobe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw

56%

Yokohama FC or Vissel Kobe

74%

Draw or Vissel Kobe

70%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+

12%

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals

69%

Yokohama FC 2+ goals

33%

Yokohama FC 3+ goals

11%

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

77%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

43%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)

41%

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.34 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 1.00 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Vissel Kobe attack 1.42 + Yokohama FC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Yokohama FC scores more

30%

level

26%

Vissel Kobe scores more

44%

Vissel Kobe at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff