Yokohama FC 1–1 Shimizu S-pulse: Result & Stats

Yokohama FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Shimizu S-pulse

K. Watanabe 45'

Valdo 81'

6/27/2021

J1 League · Round 20NHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Yokohama FC37%

×Draw30%

Shimizu S-pulse34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yokohama FCExpected goals in this matchShimizu S-pulse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.04

Yokohama FC

1.10

Shimizu S-pulse

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 36 away

0.70

creates per match

1.03

1.05

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Yokohama FC

0.70

Shimizu S-pulse

1.03

allows per match

Yokohama FC

1.05

Shimizu S-pulse

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw

66%

Yokohama FC or Shimizu S-pulse

70%

Draw or Shimizu S-pulse

63%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+

15%

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals

67%

Yokohama FC 2+ goals

30%

Yokohama FC 3+ goals

10%

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals

65%

Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals

28%

Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)

52%

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 0.70, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 0.70 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.10

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.03 + Yokohama FC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Yokohama FC scores more

37%

level

30%

Shimizu S-pulse scores more

34%

Yokohama FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Y. Kawai

Shimizu S-pulse · M

7.7

Match Events

45'

K. Watanabe↳ Y. Takagi

53'

Carlinhos Júnior← A. Disaro

65'

Han Hogang

70'

R. Okui← K. Nakayama

70'

H. Ibusuki← Yuito Suzuki

70'

Y. Kawai← K. Miyamoto

71'

T. Matsuura← K. Ogawa

81'

Valdo↳ Y. Kawai

86'

S. Ito← K. Watanabe

86'

S. Nakamura← R. Germain

90+1'

Tatsuki Seko

90+1'

E. Takeda← Y. Takagi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

YokohamaShimizu

Overview

50%Possession50%

8Total Shots17

5Corners5

13Fouls7

Shots

8Total Shots17

1On Target3

2Off Target8

5Blocked6

4Inside Box13

4Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

473Total Passes471

384Accurate Passes377

81%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls7

2Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1