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Yokohama FC vs Nagoya Grampus — J1 League 2018

Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
8/9/2021J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 23NHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Yokohama FC34%
×Draw27%
Nagoya Grampus39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yokohama FC
1.21
Nagoya Grampus
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 148 away

creates per match

Yokohama FC
1.00
Nagoya Grampus
1.16

allows per match

Yokohama FC
1.49
Nagoya Grampus
1.41

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par
Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

Nagoya Grampus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw
61%
Yokohama FC or Nagoya Grampus
73%
Draw or Nagoya Grampus
66%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+
14%
Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals
70%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
34%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
12%
Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
73%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
38%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
46%
Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

Nagoya Grampus away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.41 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 1.00 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.16 + Yokohama FC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Yokohama FC scores more
34%
level
27%
Nagoya Grampus scores more
39%

Nagoya Grampus at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Yokohama FC 2–0 Nagoya Grampus

Yokohama FC beat Nagoya Grampus 2-0 in J1 League on August 9, 2021.

The match was played at NHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium in Yokohama.