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Yokohama FC vs Montedio Yamagata — J2 League 2018

Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Montedio Yamagata
Montedio Yamagata
3/9/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 3NHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Yokohama FC43%
×Draw26%
Montedio Yamagata31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yokohama FC
1.42
Montedio Yamagata
1.15

Yokohama FC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 170 away

creates per match

Yokohama FC
1.68
Montedio Yamagata
1.27

allows per match

Yokohama FC
1.02
Montedio Yamagata
1.16

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par
Montedio Yamagata+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

Montedio Yamagata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw
69%
Yokohama FC or Montedio Yamagata
74%
Draw or Montedio Yamagata
57%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+
21%
Montedio Yamagata wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals
76%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
41%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
17%
Montedio Yamagata 1+ goals
68%
Montedio Yamagata 2+ goals
32%
Montedio Yamagata 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
59%
Montedio Yamagata (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.02 · 88 matches

Montedio Yamagata away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.16 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 1.68 + Montedio Yamagata defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.42

Montedio Yamagata attack 1.27 + Yokohama FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Yokohama FC scores more
43%
level
26%
Montedio Yamagata scores more
31%

Yokohama FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yokohama FC vs Montedio Yamagata

Yokohama FC beat Montedio Yamagata 2-0 in J2 League on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at NHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium in Yokohama.