Yokohama FC 1–1 Montedio Yamagata: Result & Stats

Yokohama FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Montedio Yamagata

7/7/2018

J2 League · Round 22Nippatsu Mitsuzawa Stadium (Yokohama)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Yokohama FC44%

×Draw26%

Montedio Yamagata30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yokohama FCExpected goals in this matchMontedio Yamagata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.14

Yokohama FC

1.44

Montedio Yamagata

1.14

Yokohama FC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 170 away

1.71

creates per match

1.27

1.01

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Yokohama FC

1.71

Montedio Yamagata

1.27

allows per match

Yokohama FC

1.01

Montedio Yamagata

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Montedio Yamagata+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

Montedio Yamagata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw

70%

Yokohama FC or Montedio Yamagata

74%

Draw or Montedio Yamagata

56%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+

21%

Montedio Yamagata wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals

76%

Yokohama FC 2+ goals

42%

Yokohama FC 3+ goals

18%

Montedio Yamagata 1+ goals

68%

Montedio Yamagata 2+ goals

32%

Montedio Yamagata 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)

59%

Montedio Yamagata (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.01 · 90 matches

Montedio Yamagata away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.16 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 1.71 + Montedio Yamagata defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.44

Montedio Yamagata attack 1.27 + Yokohama FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Yokohama FC scores more

44%

level

26%

Montedio Yamagata scores more

30%

Yokohama FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff