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Yokohama FC vs Kashima — J1 League 2018

Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kashima
Kashima
8/19/2020J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 11Nippatsu Mitsuzawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Yokohama FC27%
×Draw26%
Kashima47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yokohama FC
1.07
Kashima
1.48

Kashima creates 38% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 149 away

creates per match

Yokohama FC
1.00
Kashima
1.48

allows per match

Yokohama FC
1.49
Kashima
1.15

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par
Kashima+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

Kashima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw
53%
Yokohama FC or Kashima
74%
Draw or Kashima
73%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+
10%
Kashima wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals
66%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
29%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
9%
Kashima 1+ goals
77%
Kashima 2+ goals
43%
Kashima 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
37%
Kashima (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

Kashima away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.15 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 1.00 + Kashima defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Kashima attack 1.48 + Yokohama FC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Yokohama FC scores more
27%
level
26%
Kashima scores more
47%

Kashima at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kashima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Yokohama FC 1–0 Kashima

Yokohama FC beat Kashima 1-0 in J1 League on August 19, 2020.

The match was played at Nippatsu Mitsuzawa Stadium in Yokohama.