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Kashima vs Yokohama FC — J1 League 2018

Kashima
Kashima
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
10/2/2021J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 31Kashima Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Kashima58%
×Draw24%
Yokohama FC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kashima
1.71
Yokohama FC
0.83

Kashima creates 106% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 72 away

creates per match

Kashima
1.56
Yokohama FC
0.78

allows per match

Kashima
0.89
Yokohama FC
1.85

finishing

Kashima+0.00on par
Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashima ↓

Yokohama FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kashima or draw
82%
Kashima or Yokohama FC
76%
Draw or Yokohama FC
42%

Winning margin

Kashima wins by 2+
33%
Yokohama FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kashima 1+ goals
82%
Kashima 2+ goals
51%
Kashima 3+ goals
24%
Yokohama FC 1+ goals
56%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
20%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kashima (draw refunded)
76%
Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashima at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.89 · 151 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashima attack 1.56 + Yokohama FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.71

Yokohama FC attack 0.78 + Kashima defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kashima scores more
58%
level
24%
Yokohama FC scores more
18%

Kashima at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kashima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kashima vs Yokohama FC

Yokohama FC beat Kashima 2-1 in J1 League on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Kashima Soccer Stadium in Kashima.