Yokohama FC vs Kagoshima United — J2 League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 42+ matches
Yokohama FC58%
Kagoshima United19%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Yokohama FC creates 91% more chances
Season form · 88 home / 42 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Yokohama FC ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.02 · 88 matches
Kagoshima United away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.93 · 42 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Yokohama FC attack 1.68 + Kagoshima United defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.80
Kagoshima United attack 0.86 + Yokohama FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.94
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 58%?"
Yokohama FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 58% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Matsumoto Yamaga
Oita TrinitaYokohama FC
Machida Zelvia
Omiya Ardija
Tokyo Verdy
Avispa Fukuoka
Renofa Yamaguchi
Ventforet Kofu
Mito Hollyhock
Tokushima Vortis
Montedio Yamagata
Kanazawa
JEF United Chiba
Fagiano Okayama
Albirex Niigata
Tochigi SC
Ehime FC
Kyoto Sanga
FC Gifu
Roasso Kumamoto
Kamatamare SanukiIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Yokohama FC host Kagoshima United on Sunday, 6 October 2024 at 05:00. The match is part of the J2 League 2018/2019 season.
J2 League: Yokohama FC 1–0 Kagoshima United
Yokohama FC beat Kagoshima United 1-0 in J2 League on October 6, 2024.
The match was played at NHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium in Yokohama.