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Yokohama FC vs Fujieda MYFC — J2 League 2018

Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fujieda MYFC
Fujieda MYFC
4/14/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 10NHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Yokohama FC52%
×Draw24%
Fujieda MYFC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yokohama FC
1.68
Fujieda MYFC
1.07

Yokohama FC creates 57% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 59 away

creates per match

Yokohama FC
1.68
Fujieda MYFC
1.12

allows per match

Yokohama FC
1.02
Fujieda MYFC
1.68

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par
Fujieda MYFC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

Fujieda MYFC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw
76%
Yokohama FC or Fujieda MYFC
76%
Draw or Fujieda MYFC
48%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+
28%
Fujieda MYFC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals
81%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
50%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
24%
Fujieda MYFC 1+ goals
66%
Fujieda MYFC 2+ goals
29%
Fujieda MYFC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
68%
Fujieda MYFC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.02 · 88 matches

Fujieda MYFC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.68 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 1.68 + Fujieda MYFC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.68

Fujieda MYFC attack 1.12 + Yokohama FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Yokohama FC scores more
52%
level
24%
Fujieda MYFC scores more
24%

Yokohama FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Yokohama FC 2–0 Fujieda MYFC

Yokohama FC beat Fujieda MYFC 2-0 in J2 League on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at NHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium in Yokohama.