Yokohama FC 2–1 FC Ryukyu: Result & Stats

Yokohama FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC Ryukyu

6/2/2019

J2 League · Round 16Nippatsu Mitsuzawa Stadium (Yokohama)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Yokohama FC52%

×Draw24%

FC Ryukyu24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yokohama FCExpected goals in this matchFC Ryukyu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.07

Yokohama FC

1.68

FC Ryukyu

1.07

Yokohama FC creates 57% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 85 away

1.68

creates per match

1.12

1.02

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Yokohama FC

1.68

FC Ryukyu

1.12

allows per match

Yokohama FC

1.02

FC Ryukyu

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par

FC Ryukyu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

FC Ryukyu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw

76%

Yokohama FC or FC Ryukyu

76%

Draw or FC Ryukyu

48%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+

28%

FC Ryukyu wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals

81%

Yokohama FC 2+ goals

50%

Yokohama FC 3+ goals

24%

FC Ryukyu 1+ goals

66%

FC Ryukyu 2+ goals

29%

FC Ryukyu 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)

68%

FC Ryukyu (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.02 · 88 matches

FC Ryukyu away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.68 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 1.68 + FC Ryukyu defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.68

FC Ryukyu attack 1.12 + Yokohama FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Yokohama FC scores more

52%

level

24%

FC Ryukyu scores more

24%

Yokohama FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff