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Yokohama F. Marinos vs Vissel Kobe — J1 League 2018

Yokohama F. Marinos
Yokohama F. Marinos
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
5/21/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 13Nissan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

Yokohama F. Marinos46%
×Draw24%
Vissel Kobe30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yokohama F. Marinos
1.65
Vissel Kobe
1.27

Yokohama F. Marinos creates 30% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 148 away

creates per match

Yokohama F. Marinos
1.95
Vissel Kobe
1.42

allows per match

Yokohama F. Marinos
1.11
Vissel Kobe
1.34

finishing

Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par
Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama F. Marinos ↓

Vissel Kobe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Yokohama F. Marinos or draw
70%
Yokohama F. Marinos or Vissel Kobe
76%
Draw or Vissel Kobe
54%

Winning margin

Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+
24%
Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals
81%
Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals
49%
Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals
23%
Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
72%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
36%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)
61%
Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama F. Marinos at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.11 · 151 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.34 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.95 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.65

Vissel Kobe attack 1.42 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Yokohama F. Marinos scores more
46%
level
24%
Vissel Kobe scores more
30%

Yokohama F. Marinos at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Yokohama F. Marinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yokohama F. Marinos vs Vissel Kobe

Vissel Kobe beat Yokohama F. Marinos 2-1 in J1 League on May 21, 2025.

The match was played at Nissan Stadium in Yokohama.