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Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy — J1 League 2018

Yokohama F. Marinos
Yokohama F. Marinos
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
2/28/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 4Nissan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Yokohama F. Marinos52%
×Draw25%
Tokyo Verdy23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yokohama F. Marinos
1.62
Tokyo Verdy
0.98

Yokohama F. Marinos creates 65% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 46 away

creates per match

Yokohama F. Marinos
1.94
Tokyo Verdy
0.85

allows per match

Yokohama F. Marinos
1.11
Tokyo Verdy
1.30

finishing

Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par
Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama F. Marinos ↓

Tokyo Verdy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Yokohama F. Marinos or draw
77%
Yokohama F. Marinos or Tokyo Verdy
75%
Draw or Tokyo Verdy
48%

Winning margin

Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+
28%
Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals
80%
Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals
48%
Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals
22%
Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
62%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
26%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)
70%
Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama F. Marinos at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.11 · 150 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.94 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.62

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.85 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Yokohama F. Marinos scores more
52%
level
25%
Tokyo Verdy scores more
23%

Yokohama F. Marinos at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Yokohama F. Marinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Yokohama F. Marinos 3–2 Tokyo Verdy

Yokohama F. Marinos beat Tokyo Verdy 3-2 in J1 League on February 28, 2026.

The match was played at Nissan Stadium in Yokohama.