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Yokohama F. Marinos vs Suwon Bluewings — AFC Champions League 2018

Yokohama F. Marinos
Yokohama F. Marinos
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Suwon Bluewings
Suwon Bluewings
12/7/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · 8th FinalsKhalifa International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Yokohama F. Marinos46%
×Draw24%
Suwon Bluewings30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yokohama F. Marinos
1.67
Suwon Bluewings
1.32

Yokohama F. Marinos creates 27% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

creates per match

Yokohama F. Marinos
2.44
Suwon Bluewings
1.70

allows per match

Yokohama F. Marinos
0.94
Suwon Bluewings
0.90

finishing

Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par
Suwon Bluewings+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama F. Marinos ↓

Suwon Bluewings →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Yokohama F. Marinos or draw
70%
Yokohama F. Marinos or Suwon Bluewings
76%
Draw or Suwon Bluewings
54%

Winning margin

Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+
24%
Suwon Bluewings wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals
81%
Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals
50%
Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals
23%
Suwon Bluewings 1+ goals
73%
Suwon Bluewings 2+ goals
38%
Suwon Bluewings 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)
60%
Suwon Bluewings (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama F. Marinos at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Suwon Bluewings away — creates 1.70, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 2.44 + Suwon Bluewings defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.67

Suwon Bluewings attack 1.70 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Yokohama F. Marinos scores more
46%
level
24%
Suwon Bluewings scores more
30%

Yokohama F. Marinos at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Yokohama F. Marinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yokohama F. Marinos vs Suwon Bluewings

Suwon Bluewings beat Yokohama F. Marinos 3-2 in AFC Champions League on December 7, 2020.

The match was played at Khalifa International Stadium in Doha.