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Yokohama F. Marinos vs Matsumoto Yamaga — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Yokohama F. Marinos
Yokohama F. Marinos
Canc
03:00
Matsumoto Yamaga
Matsumoto Yamaga
2/1/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Amino Vital Training Center Miyazaki A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Yokohama F. Marinos57%
×Draw23%
Matsumoto Yamaga20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yokohama F. Marinos
1.83
Matsumoto Yamaga
1.00

Yokohama F. Marinos creates 83% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Yokohama F. Marinos
1.00
Matsumoto Yamaga
1.00

allows per match

Yokohama F. Marinos
1.00
Matsumoto Yamaga
2.67

finishing

Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par
Matsumoto Yamaga+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama F. Marinos ↓

Matsumoto Yamaga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Yokohama F. Marinos or draw
80%
Yokohama F. Marinos or Matsumoto Yamaga
77%
Draw or Matsumoto Yamaga
43%

Winning margin

Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+
32%
Matsumoto Yamaga wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals
84%
Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals
54%
Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals
28%
Matsumoto Yamaga 1+ goals
63%
Matsumoto Yamaga 2+ goals
26%
Matsumoto Yamaga 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)
74%
Matsumoto Yamaga (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama F. Marinos at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Matsumoto Yamaga away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.00 + Matsumoto Yamaga defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Matsumoto Yamaga attack 1.00 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Yokohama F. Marinos scores more
57%
level
23%
Matsumoto Yamaga scores more
20%

Yokohama F. Marinos at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Yokohama F. Marinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Yokohama F. Marinos vs Matsumoto Yamaga — Match Preview

Yokohama F. Marinos face Matsumoto Yamaga on February 1, 2024 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Yokohama F. Marinos host Matsumoto Yamaga at Amino Vital Training Center Miyazaki A.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.