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Matsumoto Yamaga vs Yokohama F. Marinos — J1 League 2018

Matsumoto Yamaga
Matsumoto Yamaga
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Yokohama F. Marinos
Yokohama F. Marinos
11/23/2019J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 32Matsumotodaira Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Matsumoto Yamaga29%
×Draw27%
Yokohama F. Marinos44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Matsumoto Yamaga
1.05
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.37

Yokohama F. Marinos creates 30% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 153 away

creates per match

Matsumoto Yamaga
0.59
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.68

allows per match

Matsumoto Yamaga
1.06
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.52

finishing

Matsumoto Yamaga+0.00on par
Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matsumoto Yamaga ↓

Yokohama F. Marinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Matsumoto Yamaga or draw
56%
Matsumoto Yamaga or Yokohama F. Marinos
73%
Draw or Yokohama F. Marinos
71%

Winning margin

Matsumoto Yamaga wins by 2+
11%
Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Matsumoto Yamaga 1+ goals
65%
Matsumoto Yamaga 2+ goals
28%
Matsumoto Yamaga 3+ goals
9%
Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals
75%
Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals
40%
Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Matsumoto Yamaga (draw refunded)
39%
Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matsumoto Yamaga at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Yokohama F. Marinos away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.52 · 153 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matsumoto Yamaga attack 0.59 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.05

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.68 + Matsumoto Yamaga defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Matsumoto Yamaga scores more
29%
level
27%
Yokohama F. Marinos scores more
44%

Yokohama F. Marinos at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Yokohama F. Marinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Matsumoto Yamaga 0–1 Yokohama F. Marinos

Yokohama F. Marinos beat Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 in J1 League on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Matsumotodaira Football Stadium in Matsumoto.