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Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kyoto Sanga — J1 League 2018

Yokohama F. Marinos
Yokohama F. Marinos
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
9/13/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 30NHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Yokohama F. Marinos49%
×Draw25%
Kyoto Sanga27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yokohama F. Marinos
1.63
Kyoto Sanga
1.14

Yokohama F. Marinos creates 43% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 80 away

creates per match

Yokohama F. Marinos
1.94
Kyoto Sanga
1.16

allows per match

Yokohama F. Marinos
1.11
Kyoto Sanga
1.32

finishing

Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par
Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama F. Marinos ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Yokohama F. Marinos or draw
73%
Yokohama F. Marinos or Kyoto Sanga
75%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
51%

Winning margin

Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+
26%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals
80%
Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals
48%
Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals
22%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
68%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
32%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)
65%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama F. Marinos at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.11 · 150 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.94 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.63

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.16 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Yokohama F. Marinos scores more
49%
level
25%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
27%

Yokohama F. Marinos at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Yokohama F. Marinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kyoto Sanga

Kyoto Sanga beat Yokohama F. Marinos 2-1 in J1 League on September 13, 2024.

The match was played at NHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium in Yokohama.