Yokohama F. Marinos 0–1 Jeonbuk Motors

Yokohama F. Marinos

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Jeonbuk Motors

4/19/2022

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 2Sân vận động Thống Nhất

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Yokohama F. Marinos50%

×Draw23%

Jeonbuk Motors28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yokohama F. MarinosExpected goals in this matchJeonbuk Motors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.35

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.88

Jeonbuk Motors

1.35

Yokohama F. Marinos creates 39% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 22 away

2.44

creates per match

1.77

0.94

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Yokohama F. Marinos

2.44

Jeonbuk Motors

1.77

allows per match

Yokohama F. Marinos

0.94

Jeonbuk Motors

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama F. Marinos ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Yokohama F. Marinos or draw

72%

Yokohama F. Marinos or Jeonbuk Motors

77%

Draw or Jeonbuk Motors

50%

Winning margin

Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+

28%

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals

85%

Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals

56%

Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals

29%

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals

74%

Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals

39%

Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)

64%

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama F. Marinos at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 2.44 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.88

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.77 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Yokohama F. Marinos scores more

50%

level

23%

Jeonbuk Motors scores more

28%

Yokohama F. Marinos at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Yokohama F. Marinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff