Yokohama F. Marinos 2–0 Hoang Anh Gia Lai

Yokohama F. Marinos

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hoang Anh Gia Lai

4/28/2022

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5Sân vận động Thống Nhất

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Yokohama F. Marinos67%

×Draw21%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yokohama F. MarinosExpected goals in this matchHoang Anh Gia Lai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.64

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.89

Hoang Anh Gia Lai

0.64

Yokohama F. Marinos creates 195% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 3 away

2.44

creates per match

0.33

0.94

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Yokohama F. Marinos

2.44

Hoang Anh Gia Lai

0.33

allows per match

Yokohama F. Marinos

0.94

Hoang Anh Gia Lai

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par

Hoang Anh Gia Lai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama F. Marinos ↓

Hoang Anh Gia Lai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Yokohama F. Marinos or draw

88%

Yokohama F. Marinos or Hoang Anh Gia Lai

79%

Draw or Hoang Anh Gia Lai

33%

Winning margin

Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+

41%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals

85%

Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals

56%

Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals

29%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai 1+ goals

47%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai 2+ goals

14%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)

85%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama F. Marinos at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Hoang Anh Gia Lai away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 2.44 + Hoang Anh Gia Lai defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.89

Hoang Anh Gia Lai attack 0.33 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Yokohama F. Marinos scores more

67%

level

21%

Hoang Anh Gia Lai scores more

12%

Yokohama F. Marinos at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Yokohama F. Marinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff