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Ynyshir Albions vs Newport City — League #111 2026

Ynyshir Albions
Ynyshir Albions
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Newport City
Newport City
3/14/2026League #111League #111

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ynyshir Albions51%
×Draw23%
Newport City26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ynyshir Albions
1.77
Newport City
1.20

Ynyshir Albions creates 48% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ynyshir Albions
2.33
Newport City
1.40

allows per match

Ynyshir Albions
1.00
Newport City
1.20

finishing

Ynyshir Albions+0.00on par
Newport City+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ynyshir Albions ↓

Newport City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ynyshir Albions or draw
74%
Ynyshir Albions or Newport City
77%
Draw or Newport City
49%

Winning margin

Ynyshir Albions wins by 2+
28%
Newport City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ynyshir Albions 1+ goals
83%
Ynyshir Albions 2+ goals
53%
Ynyshir Albions 3+ goals
26%
Newport City 1+ goals
70%
Newport City 2+ goals
34%
Newport City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ynyshir Albions (draw refunded)
66%
Newport City (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ynyshir Albions at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Newport City away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ynyshir Albions attack 2.33 + Newport City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.77

Newport City attack 1.40 + Ynyshir Albions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ynyshir Albions scores more
51%
level
23%
Newport City scores more
26%

Ynyshir Albions at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ynyshir Albions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ynyshir Albions 4 – 0 Newport City

Ynyshir Albions beat Newport City 4-0 in League #111 on March 14, 2026.