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Ýmir vs KFR — Cup 2019

Ýmir
Ýmir
FT
1 – 2
KFR
KFR
F. Gissurarson 10'
H. Sigurdsson 48'
H. Gudmundsson 38'
4/24/2021CupCup · 1st RoundKórinn Gervigrasvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ýmir80%
×Draw11%
KFR9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ýmir
3.93
KFR
1.38

Ýmir creates 185% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Ýmir
5.00
KFR
1.14

allows per match

Ýmir
1.63
KFR
2.86

finishing

Ýmir+0.00on par
KFR+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ýmir ↓

KFR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Ýmir or draw
91%
Ýmir or KFR
89%
Draw or KFR
20%

Winning margin

Ýmir wins by 2+
63%
KFR wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ýmir 1+ goals
98%
Ýmir 2+ goals
89%
Ýmir 3+ goals
72%
KFR 1+ goals
75%
KFR 2+ goals
40%
KFR 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Ýmir (draw refunded)
90%
KFR (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ýmir at home — creates 5.00, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

KFR away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ýmir attack 5.00 + KFR defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 3.93

KFR attack 1.14 + Ýmir defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Ýmir scores more
80%
level
11%
KFR scores more
9%

Ýmir at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Ýmir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
F. Gissurarson
38'
H. Gudmundsson
48'
H. Sigurdsson
84'
A. Morina

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Ýmir 1–2 KFR

KFR beat Ýmir 2-1 in Cup on April 24, 2021.

Goals: F. Gissurarson (10'), H. Gudmundsson (38'), H. Sigurdsson (48').

The match was played at Kórinn Gervigrasvöllur in Kópavogur.