Ýmir 1–4 IR Reykjavik: Result & Stats | Cup

Ýmir

1 – 4

IR Reykjavik

B. Magnusson 66'

J. Hrobjartsson 86'

R. Haraldsson 58'

I. Oli Santos 35'

G. Bjorgvinsson 16'

6/12/2020

Cup · 2nd RoundVersalavöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ýmir49%

×Draw17%

IR Reykjavik33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÝmirExpected goals in this matchIR Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.29

2.73

Ýmir

3.29

IR Reykjavik

2.73

Ýmir creates 21% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

5.00

creates per match

3.83

1.63

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Ýmir

5.00

IR Reykjavik

3.83

allows per match

Ýmir

1.63

IR Reykjavik

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ýmir+0.00on par

IR Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes90
No10

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ýmir ↓

IR Reykjavik →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1–01%

1–12%

1–23%

1–33%

1–42%

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–26%

3–35%

3–44%

4–01%

4–13%

4–25%

4–34%

4–43%

Most likely 3–2 (6%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

84%16%4.5

70%30%

Double chance

Ýmir or draw

67%

Ýmir or IR Reykjavik

83%

Draw or IR Reykjavik

51%

Winning margin

Ýmir wins by 2+

32%

IR Reykjavik wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Ýmir 1+ goals

96%

Ýmir 2+ goals

83%

Ýmir 3+ goals

62%

IR Reykjavik 1+ goals

93%

IR Reykjavik 2+ goals

75%

IR Reykjavik 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Ýmir (draw refunded)

60%

IR Reykjavik (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

87%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ýmir at home — creates 5.00, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

IR Reykjavik away — creates 3.83, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ýmir attack 5.00 + IR Reykjavik defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 3.29

IR Reykjavik attack 3.83 + Ýmir defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ýmir scores more

49%

level

17%

IR Reykjavik scores more

33%

Ýmir at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ýmir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

G. Bjorgvinsson

35'

I. Oli Santos

58'

R. Haraldsson

66'

B. Magnusson

86'

J. Hrobjartsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff