Ylöjärvi United 0–12 P-Iirot: Result & Stats

Ylöjärvi United

0 – 12

P-Iirot

2/19/2022

Suomen Cup · 1st RoundKauppi tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ylöjärvi United3%

×Draw6%

P-Iirot91%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ylöjärvi UnitedExpected goals in this matchP-Iirot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

4.70

Ylöjärvi United

0.96

P-Iirot

4.70

P-Iirot creates 390% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

0.80

creates per match

4.40

5.00

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Ylöjärvi United

0.80

P-Iirot

4.40

allows per match

Ylöjärvi United

5.00

P-Iirot

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ylöjärvi United+0.00on par

P-Iirot+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ylöjärvi United ↓

P-Iirot →

0–00%

0–12%

0–25%

0–37%

0–49%

1–00%

1–12%

1–25%

1–37%

1–48%

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–33%

2–44%

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (9%) · grid covers 61% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

77%23%4.5

59%41%

Double chance

Ylöjärvi United or draw

Ylöjärvi United or P-Iirot

94%

Draw or P-Iirot

97%

Winning margin

Ylöjärvi United wins by 2+

P-Iirot wins by 2+

79%

Team goals

Ylöjärvi United 1+ goals

62%

Ylöjärvi United 2+ goals

25%

Ylöjärvi United 3+ goals

P-Iirot 1+ goals

99%

P-Iirot 2+ goals

94%

P-Iirot 3+ goals

81%

Draw no bet

Ylöjärvi United (draw refunded)

P-Iirot (draw refunded)

96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ylöjärvi United at home — creates 0.80, concedes 5.00 · 5 matches

P-Iirot away — creates 4.40, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ylöjärvi United attack 0.80 + P-Iirot defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.96

P-Iirot attack 4.40 + Ylöjärvi United defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 4.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 91%?"

Ylöjärvi United scores more

level

P-Iirot scores more

91%

P-Iirot at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "P-Iirot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff