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Øygarden vs Staal Jørpeland — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Øygarden
Øygarden
CANC
13:00
Staal Jørpeland
Staal Jørpeland
7/9/20222. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Ågotnes Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Øygarden68%
×Draw18%
Staal Jørpeland14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Øygarden
2.38
Staal Jørpeland
0.98

Øygarden creates 143% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Øygarden
2.00
Staal Jørpeland
1.17

allows per match

Øygarden
0.80
Staal Jørpeland
2.75

finishing

Øygarden+0.00on par
Staal Jørpeland+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Øygarden ↓

Staal Jørpeland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Øygarden or draw
86%
Øygarden or Staal Jørpeland
82%
Draw or Staal Jørpeland
32%

Winning margin

Øygarden wins by 2+
45%
Staal Jørpeland wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Øygarden 1+ goals
91%
Øygarden 2+ goals
68%
Øygarden 3+ goals
42%
Staal Jørpeland 1+ goals
62%
Staal Jørpeland 2+ goals
26%
Staal Jørpeland 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Øygarden (draw refunded)
83%
Staal Jørpeland (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Øygarden at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Staal Jørpeland away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Øygarden attack 2.00 + Staal Jørpeland defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.38

Staal Jørpeland attack 1.17 + Øygarden defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Øygarden scores more
68%
level
18%
Staal Jørpeland scores more
14%

Øygarden at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Øygarden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Øygarden vs Staal Jørpeland — Match Preview

Øygarden face Staal Jørpeland on July 9, 2022 in this 2. Division - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Øygarden host Staal Jørpeland at Ågotnes Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.