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Øygarden vs Sotra — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Øygarden
Øygarden
CANC
12:00
Sotra
Sotra
10/15/20222. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Ågotnes Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Øygarden51%
×Draw25%
Sotra25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Øygarden
1.61
Sotra
1.04

Øygarden creates 55% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 44 away

creates per match

Øygarden
2.00
Sotra
1.27

allows per match

Øygarden
0.80
Sotra
1.23

finishing

Øygarden+0.00on par
Sotra+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Øygarden ↓

Sotra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Øygarden or draw
75%
Øygarden or Sotra
75%
Draw or Sotra
49%

Winning margin

Øygarden wins by 2+
27%
Sotra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Øygarden 1+ goals
80%
Øygarden 2+ goals
48%
Øygarden 3+ goals
22%
Sotra 1+ goals
65%
Sotra 2+ goals
28%
Sotra 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Øygarden (draw refunded)
67%
Sotra (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Øygarden at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Sotra away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Øygarden attack 2.00 + Sotra defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.61

Sotra attack 1.27 + Øygarden defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Øygarden scores more
51%
level
25%
Sotra scores more
25%

Øygarden at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Øygarden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Øygarden face Sotra (2. Division - Group 1)

2. Division - Group 1 returns with Øygarden hosting Sotra. Match starts October 15, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Øygarden host Sotra at Ågotnes Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.