Øygarden 1–1 Rosenborg II: Result & Stats

Øygarden

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rosenborg II

6/21/2021

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Ågotnes Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Øygarden80%

×Draw13%

Rosenborg II7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ØygardenExpected goals in this matchRosenborg II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.78

0.72

Øygarden

2.78

Rosenborg II

0.72

Øygarden creates 286% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

1.77

creates per match

0.89

0.54

allows per match

3.79

creates per match

Øygarden

1.77

Rosenborg II

0.89

allows per match

Øygarden

0.54

Rosenborg II

3.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Øygarden+0.00on par

Rosenborg II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Øygarden ↓

Rosenborg II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Øygarden or draw

93%

Øygarden or Rosenborg II

87%

Draw or Rosenborg II

20%

Winning margin

Øygarden wins by 2+

59%

Rosenborg II wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Øygarden 1+ goals

94%

Øygarden 2+ goals

76%

Øygarden 3+ goals

51%

Rosenborg II 1+ goals

51%

Rosenborg II 2+ goals

16%

Rosenborg II 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Øygarden (draw refunded)

92%

Rosenborg II (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Øygarden at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

Rosenborg II away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Øygarden attack 1.77 + Rosenborg II defence 3.79 → ÷2 → 2.78

Rosenborg II attack 0.89 + Øygarden defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Øygarden scores more

80%

level

13%

Rosenborg II scores more

7%

Øygarden at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Øygarden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff