Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Øygarden vs Odd II — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Øygarden
Øygarden
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Odd II
Odd II
5/14/20222. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Ågotnes Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Øygarden66%
×Draw20%
Odd II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Øygarden
2.04
Odd II
0.79

Øygarden creates 158% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Øygarden
2.00
Odd II
0.77

allows per match

Øygarden
0.80
Odd II
2.08

finishing

Øygarden+0.00on par
Odd II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Øygarden ↓

Odd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Øygarden or draw
86%
Øygarden or Odd II
80%
Draw or Odd II
34%

Winning margin

Øygarden wins by 2+
41%
Odd II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Øygarden 1+ goals
87%
Øygarden 2+ goals
60%
Øygarden 3+ goals
33%
Odd II 1+ goals
55%
Odd II 2+ goals
19%
Odd II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Øygarden (draw refunded)
83%
Odd II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Øygarden at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Odd II away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Øygarden attack 2.00 + Odd II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.04

Odd II attack 0.77 + Øygarden defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Øygarden scores more
66%
level
20%
Odd II scores more
14%

Øygarden at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Øygarden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Øygarden vs Odd II

Øygarden beat Odd II 2-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Ågotnes Stadion in Ågotnes.