Øygarden 3–1 Norrby IF: Result & Stats

Øygarden

3 – 1

Norrby IF

2/28/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Ciudad Deportiva La Dama de Noche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Øygarden58%

×Draw19%

Norrby IF23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ØygardenExpected goals in this matchNorrby IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.55

1.57

Øygarden

2.55

Norrby IF

1.57

Øygarden creates 62% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

2.50

creates per match

1.40

1.75

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Øygarden

2.50

Norrby IF

1.40

allows per match

Øygarden

1.75

Norrby IF

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Øygarden+0.00on par

Norrby IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Øygarden ↓

Norrby IF →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Øygarden or draw

77%

Øygarden or Norrby IF

81%

Draw or Norrby IF

42%

Winning margin

Øygarden wins by 2+

38%

Norrby IF wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Øygarden 1+ goals

92%

Øygarden 2+ goals

72%

Øygarden 3+ goals

46%

Norrby IF 1+ goals

79%

Norrby IF 2+ goals

46%

Norrby IF 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Øygarden (draw refunded)

72%

Norrby IF (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Øygarden at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Norrby IF away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Øygarden attack 2.50 + Norrby IF defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.55

Norrby IF attack 1.40 + Øygarden defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Øygarden scores more

58%

level

19%

Norrby IF scores more

23%

Øygarden at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Øygarden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff