YF Juventus 2–2 Köniz: Result & Stats

YF Juventus

FT

2 – 2

Köniz

6/12/2021

1. Liga Promotion · Relegation Round - 7Sportanlage Juchhof R4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

YF Juventus51%

×Draw21%

Köniz29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YF JuventusExpected goals in this matchKöniz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.63

YF Juventus

2.22

Köniz

1.63

YF Juventus creates 36% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 20 away

1.59

creates per match

1.20

2.05

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

YF Juventus

1.59

Köniz

1.20

allows per match

YF Juventus

2.05

Köniz

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

YF Juventus+0.00on par

Köniz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

YF Juventus ↓

Köniz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

YF Juventus or draw

71%

YF Juventus or Köniz

79%

Draw or Köniz

49%

Winning margin

YF Juventus wins by 2+

30%

Köniz wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

YF Juventus 1+ goals

89%

YF Juventus 2+ goals

65%

YF Juventus 3+ goals

38%

Köniz 1+ goals

80%

Köniz 2+ goals

48%

Köniz 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

YF Juventus (draw refunded)

64%

Köniz (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

YF Juventus at home — creates 1.59, concedes 2.05 · 56 matches

Köniz away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

YF Juventus attack 1.59 + Köniz defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.22

Köniz attack 1.20 + YF Juventus defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

YF Juventus scores more

51%

level

21%

Köniz scores more

29%

YF Juventus at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "YF Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff