Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor vs Yeni Malatyaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Yeni Malatyaspor
Yeni Malatyaspor
B. Sarisu 80'
M. Goze 53'
M. Ozturk 45', 8'
M. Yilmaz 13'
9/3/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundYeni Malatya Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor65%
×Draw18%
Yeni Malatyaspor17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
2.40
Yeni Malatyaspor
1.13

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor creates 112% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
2.80
Yeni Malatyaspor
0.86

allows per match

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
1.40
Yeni Malatyaspor
2.00

finishing

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor+0.00on par
Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor ↓

Yeni Malatyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor or draw
83%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor or Yeni Malatyaspor
82%
Draw or Yeni Malatyaspor
35%

Winning margin

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor wins by 2+
43%
Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 1+ goals
91%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 2+ goals
69%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 3+ goals
42%
Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals
68%
Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals
31%
Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor (draw refunded)
80%
Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Yeni Malatyaspor away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor attack 2.80 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.40

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.86 + Yeşilyurt Belediyespor defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor scores more
65%
level
18%
Yeni Malatyaspor scores more
17%

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Yeşilyurt Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
M. Ozturk
13'
M. Yilmaz
45'
M. Ozturk
53'
M. Goze
80'
B. Sarisu
Yeşilyurt
Yeni
Necip Emre Yılmaz
Manager: Necip Emre Yılmaz
Faruk Akçınar
Manager: Faruk Akçınar

Türkiye Kupası: Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 5–0 Yeni Malatyaspor

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor beat Yeni Malatyaspor 5-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 3, 2025.

Goals: M. Ozturk (8', 45'), M. Yilmaz (13'), M. Goze (53'), B. Sarisu (80').

The match was played at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu in Malatya.