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Yeşilyurt Belediyespor vs Elazığ Belediyespor FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 4
Elazığ Belediyespor FK
Elazığ Belediyespor FK
9/11/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundMalatya Yeşiltepe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor53%
×Draw21%
Elazığ Belediyespor FK26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
2.15
Elazığ Belediyespor FK
1.45

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor creates 48% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
2.80
Elazığ Belediyespor FK
1.50

allows per match

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
1.40
Elazığ Belediyespor FK
1.50

finishing

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor+0.00on par
Elazığ Belediyespor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor ↓

Elazığ Belediyespor FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor or draw
74%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor or Elazığ Belediyespor FK
79%
Draw or Elazığ Belediyespor FK
47%

Winning margin

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor wins by 2+
32%
Elazığ Belediyespor FK wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 1+ goals
88%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 2+ goals
63%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 3+ goals
36%
Elazığ Belediyespor FK 1+ goals
77%
Elazığ Belediyespor FK 2+ goals
42%
Elazığ Belediyespor FK 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor (draw refunded)
67%
Elazığ Belediyespor FK (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Elazığ Belediyespor FK away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor attack 2.80 + Elazığ Belediyespor FK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.15

Elazığ Belediyespor FK attack 1.50 + Yeşilyurt Belediyespor defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor scores more
53%
level
21%
Elazığ Belediyespor FK scores more
26%

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Yeşilyurt Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 0–5 Elazığ Belediyespor FK

Elazığ Belediyespor FK beat Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 5-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 11, 2019.

The match was played at Malatya Yeşiltepe Stadı in Malatya.