Yeşilyurt Belediyespor vs Ağrı 1970 — League #553 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor44%
Ağrı 197027%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor creates 35% more chances
Season form · 12 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under62
- Over38
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches
Ağrı 1970 away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor attack 1.75 + Ağrı 1970 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.27
Ağrı 1970 attack 0.80 + Yeşilyurt Belediyespor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.94
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Yeşilyurt Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sample
Karaköprü BelediyesporYeşilyurt Belediyespor
Kırşehir Belediyespor
12 Bingölspor
Osmaniyespor
Diyarbekirspor
Silifke Belediyespor
Kilis Belediyespor
Türk Metal 1963
Mazıdağı Fosfatspor
Talasgücü Belediyespor
Kapadokyaspor
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
Kahramanmaraşspor
Niğde BelediyesisporAğrı 1970If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor host Ağrı 1970 on Tuesday, 16 December 2025 at 10:00. The match is part of the League #553 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Yeşilyurt Belediyespor vs Ağrı 1970
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor and Ağrı 1970 drew 0-0 in League #553 on December 16, 2025.
The match was played at Malatya Yeşiltepe Stadı in Malatya.