Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 1–0 Adıyaman 1954

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Adıyaman 1954

10/14/2020

Türkiye Kupası · 1st RoundMalatya Yeşiltepe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor61%

×Draw19%

Adıyaman 195420%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yeşilyurt BelediyesporExpected goals in this matchAdıyaman 1954

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.40

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor

2.50

Adıyaman 1954

1.40

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor creates 79% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.80

creates per match

1.40

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor

2.80

Adıyaman 1954

1.40

allows per match

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor

1.40

Adıyaman 1954

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor+0.00on par

Adıyaman 1954+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor ↓

Adıyaman 1954 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor or draw

80%

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor or Adıyaman 1954

81%

Draw or Adıyaman 1954

39%

Winning margin

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor wins by 2+

40%

Adıyaman 1954 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 1+ goals

92%

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 2+ goals

71%

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 3+ goals

45%

Adıyaman 1954 1+ goals

75%

Adıyaman 1954 2+ goals

41%

Adıyaman 1954 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor (draw refunded)

75%

Adıyaman 1954 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Adıyaman 1954 away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor attack 2.80 + Adıyaman 1954 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.50

Adıyaman 1954 attack 1.40 + Yeşilyurt Belediyespor defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor scores more

61%

level

19%

Adıyaman 1954 scores more

20%

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Yeşilyurt Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff