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Yeşilyurt Belediyespor vs 12 Bingölspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
12 Bingölspor
12 Bingölspor
8/28/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundMalatya Yeşiltepe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor79%
×Draw12%
12 Bingölspor9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
3.23
12 Bingölspor
1.03

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor creates 214% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
2.80
12 Bingölspor
0.67

allows per match

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
1.40
12 Bingölspor
3.67

finishing

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor+0.00on par
12 Bingölspor+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor ↓

12 Bingölspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor or draw
91%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor or 12 Bingölspor
88%
Draw or 12 Bingölspor
21%

Winning margin

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor wins by 2+
60%
12 Bingölspor wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 1+ goals
96%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 2+ goals
82%
Yeşilyurt Belediyespor 3+ goals
61%
12 Bingölspor 1+ goals
64%
12 Bingölspor 2+ goals
28%
12 Bingölspor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor (draw refunded)
90%
12 Bingölspor (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

12 Bingölspor away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor attack 2.80 + 12 Bingölspor defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.23

12 Bingölspor attack 0.67 + Yeşilyurt Belediyespor defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor scores more
79%
level
12%
12 Bingölspor scores more
9%

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Yeşilyurt Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yeşilyurt Belediyespor vs 12 Bingölspor

Yeşilyurt Belediyespor beat 12 Bingölspor 5-0 in Türkiye Kupası on August 28, 2019.

The match was played at Malatya Yeşiltepe Stadı in Malatya.