Yerevan 0–2 FC Noah: Result & Stats

Yerevan

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

FC Noah

8/9/2019

Premier League · Round 2Vanadzor Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Yerevan13%

×Draw19%

FC Noah68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YerevanExpected goals in this matchFC Noah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

2.19

Yerevan

0.82

FC Noah

2.19

FC Noah creates 167% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 105 away

0.45

creates per match

1.39

3.00

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Yerevan

0.45

FC Noah

1.39

allows per match

Yerevan

3.00

FC Noah

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yerevan+0.00on par

FC Noah+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yerevan ↓

FC Noah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–111%

0–212%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Yerevan or draw

32%

Yerevan or FC Noah

81%

Draw or FC Noah

87%

Winning margin

Yerevan wins by 2+

4%

FC Noah wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Yerevan 1+ goals

56%

Yerevan 2+ goals

20%

Yerevan 3+ goals

5%

FC Noah 1+ goals

89%

FC Noah 2+ goals

64%

FC Noah 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Yerevan (draw refunded)

16%

FC Noah (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yerevan at home — creates 0.45, concedes 3.00 · 11 matches

FC Noah away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yerevan attack 0.45 + FC Noah defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.82

FC Noah attack 1.39 + Yerevan defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Yerevan scores more

13%

level

19%

FC Noah scores more

68%

FC Noah at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "FC Noah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff