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Yerevan vs Alashkert — Premier League 2019

Yerevan
Yerevan
FT
0 – 3
Alashkert
Alashkert
2/28/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Vanadzor Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Yerevan13%
×Draw19%
Alashkert68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yerevan
0.86
Alashkert
2.22

Alashkert creates 158% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 107 away

creates per match

Yerevan
0.45
Alashkert
1.44

allows per match

Yerevan
3.00
Alashkert
1.28

finishing

Yerevan+0.00on par
Alashkert+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yerevan ↓

Alashkert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Yerevan or draw
32%
Yerevan or Alashkert
81%
Draw or Alashkert
87%

Winning margin

Yerevan wins by 2+
4%
Alashkert wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Yerevan 1+ goals
58%
Yerevan 2+ goals
21%
Yerevan 3+ goals
6%
Alashkert 1+ goals
89%
Alashkert 2+ goals
65%
Alashkert 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Yerevan (draw refunded)
16%
Alashkert (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yerevan at home — creates 0.45, concedes 3.00 · 11 matches

Alashkert away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.28 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yerevan attack 0.45 + Alashkert defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.86

Alashkert attack 1.44 + Yerevan defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Yerevan scores more
13%
level
19%
Alashkert scores more
68%

Alashkert at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Alashkert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yerevan vs Alashkert

Alashkert beat Yerevan 3-0 in Premier League on February 28, 2020.

The match was played at Vanadzor Football Academy in Vanadzor.