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Yeovil Town W vs Reading W — FA WSL 2018

Yeovil Town W
Yeovil Town W
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Reading W
Reading W
4/17/2019FA WSLFA WSL · Round 10Jewson Stadium (Dorchester, Dorset)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Yeovil Town W19%
×Draw19%
Reading W62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeovil Town W
1.25
Reading W
2.38

Reading W creates 90% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 49 away

creates per match

Yeovil Town W
0.40
Reading W
1.16

allows per match

Yeovil Town W
3.60
Reading W
2.10

finishing

Yeovil Town W+0.00on par
Reading W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeovil Town W ↓

Reading W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Yeovil Town W or draw
38%
Yeovil Town W or Reading W
81%
Draw or Reading W
81%

Winning margin

Yeovil Town W wins by 2+
7%
Reading W wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Yeovil Town W 1+ goals
71%
Yeovil Town W 2+ goals
36%
Yeovil Town W 3+ goals
13%
Reading W 1+ goals
91%
Reading W 2+ goals
68%
Reading W 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Yeovil Town W (draw refunded)
23%
Reading W (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeovil Town W at home — creates 0.40, concedes 3.60 · 10 matches

Reading W away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.10 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeovil Town W attack 0.40 + Reading W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Reading W attack 1.16 + Yeovil Town W defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Yeovil Town W scores more
19%
level
19%
Reading W scores more
62%

Reading W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Reading W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA WSL: Yeovil Town W 0–5 Reading W

Reading W beat Yeovil Town W 5-0 in FA WSL on April 17, 2019.

The match was played at Jewson Stadium (Dorchester, Dorset).