Yeovil Town vs Newport County — Friendlies Clubs 2026
Both teams score in 100% of Yeovil Town’s matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Yeovil Town43%
Newport County31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Yeovil Town creates 21% more chances
Season form · 4 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Yeovil Town ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Yeovil Town at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches
Newport County away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Yeovil Town attack 1.00 + Newport County defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.44
Newport County attack 1.13 + Yeovil Town defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Yeovil Town at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Yeovil Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Yeovil Town score first in only 18% of matches
- 82% of Yeovil Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
- Newport County score first in only 30% of matches
- Both sides lean high-scoring (82% and 60% over 2.5)
- Their last 6 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
5 previous meetingsYeovil Town host Newport County on Saturday, 1 August 2026 at 14:00. The match is part of the Friendlies Clubs 2026/2027 season.
Yeovil Town face Newport County (Friendlies Clubs)
Friendlies Clubs returns with Yeovil Town hosting Newport County. Match starts August 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.