Newport County 2–0 Yeovil Town: Result & Stats

Newport County

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Yeovil Town

J. Labadie 55'

P. Amond 45'

10/7/2017

League Two · Round 12Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Newport County55%

×Draw25%

Yeovil Town20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Newport CountyExpected goals in this matchYeovil Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.82

Newport County

1.56

Yeovil Town

0.82

Newport County creates 90% more chances

Season form · 163 home / 9 away

1.34

creates per match

0.44

1.21

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Newport County

1.34

Yeovil Town

0.44

allows per match

Newport County

1.21

Yeovil Town

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newport County+0.00on par

Yeovil Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newport County ↓

Yeovil Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Newport County or draw

80%

Newport County or Yeovil Town

75%

Draw or Yeovil Town

45%

Winning margin

Newport County wins by 2+

29%

Yeovil Town wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Newport County 1+ goals

79%

Newport County 2+ goals

46%

Newport County 3+ goals

21%

Yeovil Town 1+ goals

56%

Yeovil Town 2+ goals

20%

Yeovil Town 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Newport County (draw refunded)

74%

Yeovil Town (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newport County at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.21 · 163 matches

Yeovil Town away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newport County attack 1.34 + Yeovil Town defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.56

Yeovil Town attack 0.44 + Newport County defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Newport County scores more

55%

level

25%

Yeovil Town scores more

20%

Newport County at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Newport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

43'

45'

45'

50'

55'

71'

S. Rigg← M. Dolan

80'

Alefe Santos← M. Worthington

85'

L. Reynolds← P. Amond

88'

T. Owen-Evans← J. Labadie

Possession

Shots

Statistics

NewportYeovil

Overview

68%Possession32%

19Total Shots5

10Corners2

10Fouls10

Shots

19Total Shots5

7On Target1

8Off Target3

4Blocked1

12Inside Box1

7Outside Box4

Passing

68%Possession32%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

5Offsides3