Yeovil Town 1–3 Grimsby: Result & Stats

Yeovil Town

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Grimsby

A. Fisher 90'

K. Dennis 87'

A. Gafaiti 35' (OG)

W. Thomas 9'

2/9/2019

League Two · Round 32Huish Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Yeovil Town33%

×Draw31%

Grimsby36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yeovil TownExpected goals in this matchGrimsby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.02

Yeovil Town

0.97

Grimsby

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 138 away

0.56

creates per match

1.15

0.89

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Yeovil Town

0.56

Grimsby

1.15

allows per match

Yeovil Town

0.89

Grimsby

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yeovil Town+0.00on par

Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeovil Town ↓

Grimsby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Yeovil Town or draw

64%

Yeovil Town or Grimsby

69%

Draw or Grimsby

67%

Winning margin

Yeovil Town wins by 2+

12%

Grimsby wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Yeovil Town 1+ goals

62%

Yeovil Town 2+ goals

25%

Yeovil Town 3+ goals

7%

Grimsby 1+ goals

64%

Grimsby 2+ goals

27%

Grimsby 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Yeovil Town (draw refunded)

48%

Grimsby (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeovil Town at home — creates 0.56, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeovil Town attack 0.56 + Grimsby defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.97

Grimsby attack 1.15 + Yeovil Town defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Yeovil Town scores more

33%

level

31%

Grimsby scores more

36%

Grimsby at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Craig Alcock

9'

W. Thomas↳ L. Hendrie

35'

A. GafaitiOwn goal

39'

A. Pattison← M. Worthington

55'

64'

64'

74'

75'

75'

H. Clifton← W. Thomas

77'

Luke Hendrie

77'

C. Duffus← M. Dobre

85'

H. Davis← S. Ring

87'

K. Dennis↳ H. Clifton

90'

Elliot Embleton

90'

A. Fisher↳ A. Pattison

Yeovil

Grimsby

1

McKeown

6

Collins

5

Öhman

27

A

Hendrie

16

Woolford

11

▼

Cook

7

Hessentha

3

▼

Ring

2

Hall-John

22

Embleton

39

⚽

▼

1

3

4

24

2

🥅

Gafaiti

10

Gray

25

▼

Dobre

7

Browne

8

▼

Worthingt

9

⚽

Fisher

16

▼

Abrahams

Manager: D. Way

39'▲A. Pattison←▼M. Worthington

55'▲F. Zoko←▼T. Abrahams

77'▲C. Duffus←▼M. Dobre

Yeovil Town substitutes

17Pattison13Zoko11Duffus5Mugabi12Baxter15Rogers18Arquin

Manager: M. Jolley

75'▲K. Dennis←▼J. Cook

75'▲H. Clifton←▼W. Thomas

85'▲H. Davis←▼S. Ring

Grimsby substitutes

8Dennis15Clifton24Davis4Welsh18Vernam23Russell25Whitmore