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Yeoju Sejong vs Seoul United — FA Cup 2019

Yeoju Sejong
Yeoju Sejong
FT
0 – 1
Seoul United
Seoul United
2/19/2022FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundYeoju Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Yeoju Sejong28%
×Draw23%
Seoul United49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeoju Sejong
1.38
Seoul United
1.88

Seoul United creates 36% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Yeoju Sejong
1.25
Seoul United
1.50

allows per match

Yeoju Sejong
2.25
Seoul United
1.50

finishing

Yeoju Sejong+0.00on par
Seoul United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeoju Sejong ↓

Seoul United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Yeoju Sejong or draw
51%
Yeoju Sejong or Seoul United
77%
Draw or Seoul United
72%

Winning margin

Yeoju Sejong wins by 2+
12%
Seoul United wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Yeoju Sejong 1+ goals
75%
Yeoju Sejong 2+ goals
40%
Yeoju Sejong 3+ goals
16%
Seoul United 1+ goals
85%
Seoul United 2+ goals
56%
Seoul United 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Yeoju Sejong (draw refunded)
37%
Seoul United (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeoju Sejong at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Seoul United away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeoju Sejong attack 1.25 + Seoul United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Seoul United attack 1.50 + Yeoju Sejong defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Yeoju Sejong scores more
28%
level
23%
Seoul United scores more
49%

Seoul United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Seoul United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Yeoju Sejong 0–1 Seoul United

Seoul United beat Yeoju Sejong 1-0 in FA Cup on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Yeoju Sports Complex in Yeoju.