Yeoju Sejong 0–2 Paju Citizen: Result & Stats

Yeoju Sejong

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Paju Citizen

Matheus Devellard 90'

Y. Kim 21'

9/27/2025

K3 League · Round 26Yeoju Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Yeoju Sejong31%

×Draw28%

Paju Citizen42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yeoju SejongExpected goals in this matchPaju Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.30

Yeoju Sejong

1.08

Paju Citizen

1.30

Paju Citizen creates 20% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 59 away

1.03

creates per match

1.10

1.50

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Yeoju Sejong

1.03

Paju Citizen

1.10

allows per match

Yeoju Sejong

1.50

Paju Citizen

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yeoju Sejong+0.00on par

Paju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeoju Sejong ↓

Paju Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Yeoju Sejong or draw

58%

Yeoju Sejong or Paju Citizen

72%

Draw or Paju Citizen

69%

Winning margin

Yeoju Sejong wins by 2+

12%

Paju Citizen wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Yeoju Sejong 1+ goals

66%

Yeoju Sejong 2+ goals

29%

Yeoju Sejong 3+ goals

10%

Paju Citizen 1+ goals

73%

Paju Citizen 2+ goals

37%

Paju Citizen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Yeoju Sejong (draw refunded)

43%

Paju Citizen (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeoju Sejong at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Paju Citizen away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeoju Sejong attack 1.03 + Paju Citizen defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.08

Paju Citizen attack 1.10 + Yeoju Sejong defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Yeoju Sejong scores more

31%

level

28%

Paju Citizen scores more

42%

Paju Citizen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Paju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Y. Kim

90'

Matheus Devellard

Yeoju

Paju

Manager: Sim Bong-Seob

Manager: Lee Eun-No