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Yenisey W vs Krylya Sovetov W — Supreme Division Women 2020

Yenisey W
Yenisey W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Krylya Sovetov W
Krylya Sovetov W
10/19/2024Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 23Futbol-arena Enisey

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Yenisey W48%
×Draw26%
Krylya Sovetov W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yenisey W
1.48
Krylya Sovetov W
1.00

Yenisey W creates 48% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 44 away

creates per match

Yenisey W
0.97
Krylya Sovetov W
0.50

allows per match

Yenisey W
1.50
Krylya Sovetov W
2.00

finishing

Yenisey W+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yenisey W ↓

Krylya Sovetov W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Yenisey W or draw
74%
Yenisey W or Krylya Sovetov W
74%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov W
52%

Winning margin

Yenisey W wins by 2+
24%
Krylya Sovetov W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Yenisey W 1+ goals
77%
Yenisey W 2+ goals
43%
Yenisey W 3+ goals
19%
Krylya Sovetov W 1+ goals
63%
Krylya Sovetov W 2+ goals
26%
Krylya Sovetov W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Yenisey W (draw refunded)
65%
Krylya Sovetov W (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yenisey W at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 74 matches

Krylya Sovetov W away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yenisey W attack 0.97 + Krylya Sovetov W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.48

Krylya Sovetov W attack 0.50 + Yenisey W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Yenisey W scores more
48%
level
26%
Krylya Sovetov W scores more
26%

Yenisey W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Yenisey W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yenisey W vs Krylya Sovetov W

Krylya Sovetov W beat Yenisey W 2-1 in Supreme Division Women on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Futbol-arena Enisey in Krasnoyarsk.