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Yenisey II vs Olimp-Dolgoprudny II — Second League - Group 2 2020

Yenisey II
Yenisey II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
9/25/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Futbol-arena Enisey

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Yenisey II36%
×Draw25%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yenisey II
1.38
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 14 away

creates per match

Yenisey II
1.40
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
1.29

allows per match

Yenisey II
1.64
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
1.36

finishing

Yenisey II+0.00on par
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yenisey II ↓

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Yenisey II or draw
61%
Yenisey II or Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
75%
Draw or Olimp-Dolgoprudny II
64%

Winning margin

Yenisey II wins by 2+
16%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Yenisey II 1+ goals
75%
Yenisey II 2+ goals
40%
Yenisey II 3+ goals
16%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 1+ goals
77%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 2+ goals
43%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Yenisey II (draw refunded)
48%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yenisey II at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.64 · 77 matches

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yenisey II attack 1.40 + Olimp-Dolgoprudny II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II attack 1.29 + Yenisey II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Yenisey II scores more
36%
level
25%
Olimp-Dolgoprudny II scores more
39%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Olimp-Dolgoprudny II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Yenisey II 3–2 Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

Yenisey II beat Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 3-2 in Second League - Group 2 on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Futbol-arena Enisey in Krasnoyarsk.