Yenisey II 4–1 Krasava Odintsovo: Result & Stats

Yenisey II

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Krasava Odintsovo

D. Polshikov 89'

A. Nadolskiy 78'

E. Pesikov 43', 25'

A. Kryuchkov 62' (pen)

5/11/2022

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 7Futbol-arena Enisey

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Yenisey II35%

×Draw24%

Krasava Odintsovo41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yenisey IIExpected goals in this matchKrasava Odintsovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.57

Yenisey II

1.45

Krasava Odintsovo

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 16 away

1.40

creates per match

1.50

1.64

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Yenisey II

1.40

Krasava Odintsovo

1.50

allows per match

Yenisey II

1.64

Krasava Odintsovo

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yenisey II+0.00on par

Krasava Odintsovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yenisey II ↓

Krasava Odintsovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Yenisey II or draw

59%

Yenisey II or Krasava Odintsovo

76%

Draw or Krasava Odintsovo

65%

Winning margin

Yenisey II wins by 2+

16%

Krasava Odintsovo wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Yenisey II 1+ goals

77%

Yenisey II 2+ goals

42%

Yenisey II 3+ goals

18%

Krasava Odintsovo 1+ goals

79%

Krasava Odintsovo 2+ goals

46%

Krasava Odintsovo 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Yenisey II (draw refunded)

47%

Krasava Odintsovo (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yenisey II at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.64 · 77 matches

Krasava Odintsovo away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yenisey II attack 1.40 + Krasava Odintsovo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Krasava Odintsovo attack 1.50 + Yenisey II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Yenisey II scores more

35%

level

24%

Krasava Odintsovo scores more

41%

Krasava Odintsovo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Krasava Odintsovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

V. Saramutin

25'

E. Pesikov

43'

E. Pesikov

46'

A. Amiraliev← N. Ponomarev

46'

M. Ivakhnov← A. Tsogoev

62'

E. Grachev← T. Beloshapkin

62'

A. KryuchkovPenalty

64'

D. Kumsarov← M. Chikanchi

66'

M. Ivakhnov

71'

N. Maksimov← A. Tretjakov

75'

I. Zakharov

75'

A. Elovskikh

78'

A. Nadolskiy

79'

S. Kerimov← N. Balandin

83'

D. Churkin← T. Sakharov

83'

D. Polshikov← A. Egorov

89'

D. Polshikov

90+3'

D. Polshikov

Yenisey

Krasava

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Kishinevskiy

62'▲E. Grachev←▼T. Beloshapkin

71'▲N. Maksimov←▼A. Tretjakov

83'▲D. Churkin←▼T. Sakharov

83'▲D. Polshikov←▼A. Egorov

Yenisey II substitutes

GrachevMaksimovChurkinPolshikov

Manager: A. Radevich

46'▲A. Amiraliev←▼N. Ponomarev

46'▲M. Ivakhnov←▼A. Tsogoev

64'▲D. Kumsarov←▼M. Chikanchi

79'▲S. Kerimov←▼N. Balandin

Krasava Odintsovo substitutes

AmiralievIvakhnovKumsarovKerimov

Second League - Group 2: Yenisey II 4–1 Krasava Odintsovo

Yenisey II beat Krasava Odintsovo 4-1 in Second League - Group 2 on May 11, 2022.

Goals: E. Pesikov (25', 43'), A. Kryuchkov (62' pen), A. Nadolskiy (78'), D. Polshikov (89').

The match was played at Futbol-arena Enisey in Krasnoyarsk.

Yenisey II vs Krasava Odintsovo — Second League - Group 2 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League - Group 2: Yenisey II 4–1 Krasava Odintsovo