Yenisey II 1–2 Kosmos Dolgoprudny: Result & Stats

Yenisey II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Kosmos Dolgoprudny

E. Gololobov 82'

M. Khalilov 88'

N. Ershov 65'

4/20/2025

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Tsentralnyi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Yenisey II39%

×Draw25%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yenisey IIExpected goals in this matchKosmos Dolgoprudny

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.42

Yenisey II

1.48

Kosmos Dolgoprudny

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 21 away

1.40

creates per match

1.19

1.64

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Yenisey II

1.40

Kosmos Dolgoprudny

1.19

allows per match

Yenisey II

1.64

Kosmos Dolgoprudny

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yenisey II+0.00on par

Kosmos Dolgoprudny+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yenisey II ↓

Kosmos Dolgoprudny →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Yenisey II or draw

64%

Yenisey II or Kosmos Dolgoprudny

75%

Draw or Kosmos Dolgoprudny

61%

Winning margin

Yenisey II wins by 2+

19%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Yenisey II 1+ goals

77%

Yenisey II 2+ goals

43%

Yenisey II 3+ goals

19%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny 1+ goals

76%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny 2+ goals

41%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Yenisey II (draw refunded)

52%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yenisey II at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.64 · 77 matches

Kosmos Dolgoprudny away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yenisey II attack 1.40 + Kosmos Dolgoprudny defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Kosmos Dolgoprudny attack 1.19 + Yenisey II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Yenisey II scores more

39%

level

25%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny scores more

36%

Yenisey II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Yenisey II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

39'

39'

45'

46'

M. Khalilov← D. Beskorovaynyi

49'

M. Naumov

59'

S. Radostev← M. Naumov

59'

E. Pozdnyakov← M. Pykhcheev

65'

N. Ershov

67'

E. Gololobov← A. Gubanov

76'

D. Ambrosenok← A. Chulkov

76'

I. Oborocha← D. Livanov

76'

E. Egorov← K. Porshunov

82'

88'

90'

90'

90+4'

I. Lapitsky← V. Kravtsov

90+3'

A. Belov← N. Ershov

90+1'

F. Solovey← B. Kondramashin

Yenisey

Kosmos

30

13

33

18

97

17

7

▼

Naumov

22

▼

Pykhcheev

69

⚽

▼

Ershov

14

▼

Beskorova

9

▼

79

85

58

66

74

▼

Chulkov

78

Egorov

92

▼

Gubanov

51

▼

Livanov

62

▼

Kravtsov

18

Nadolskiy

71

▼

Porshunov

Manager: A. Kishinevskiy

67'▲E. Gololobov←▼A. Gubanov

76'▲D. Ambrosenok←▼A. Chulkov

76'▲I. Oborocha←▼D. Livanov

76'▲E. Egorov←▼K. Porshunov

90+4'▲I. Lapitsky←▼V. Kravtsov

Yenisey II substitutes

86Serdyukov56Epifantsev83Ambrosenok76Musaev67Borzenkov95Oborocha54Gololobov70Egorov84Maryasov57Shupyakov69Lapitsky73Valkov

Manager: A. Proshin

46'▲M. Khalilov←▼D. Beskorovaynyi

59'▲S. Radostev←▼M. Naumov

59'▲E. Pozdnyakov←▼M. Pykhcheev

90+3'▲A. Belov←▼N. Ershov

90+1'▲F. Solovey←▼B. Kondramashin

Kosmos Dolgoprudny substitutes

85Nazar3Gordeev46Belov10Radostev8Solovey6Pozdnyakov99Khalilov

Match Recap: Yenisey II vs Kosmos Dolgoprudny

Kosmos Dolgoprudny beat Yenisey II 2-1 in Second League - Group 2 on April 20, 2025.

Goals: N. Ershov (65'), E. Gololobov (82'), M. Khalilov (88').

The match was played at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Krasnoyarsk.

Yenisey II vs Kosmos Dolgoprudny — Second League - Group 2 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Yenisey II vs Kosmos Dolgoprudny