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Yenisey II vs Kolomna — Second League - Group 2 2020

Yenisey II
Yenisey II
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Kolomna
Kolomna
5/19/2025Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Tsentralnyi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Yenisey II48%
×Draw24%
Kolomna28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yenisey II
1.69
Kolomna
1.23

Yenisey II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 29 away

creates per match

Yenisey II
1.40
Kolomna
0.83

allows per match

Yenisey II
1.64
Kolomna
1.97

finishing

Yenisey II+0.00on par
Kolomna+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yenisey II ↓

Kolomna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Yenisey II or draw
72%
Yenisey II or Kolomna
76%
Draw or Kolomna
52%

Winning margin

Yenisey II wins by 2+
26%
Kolomna wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Yenisey II 1+ goals
82%
Yenisey II 2+ goals
50%
Yenisey II 3+ goals
24%
Kolomna 1+ goals
71%
Kolomna 2+ goals
35%
Kolomna 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Yenisey II (draw refunded)
63%
Kolomna (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yenisey II at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.64 · 77 matches

Kolomna away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yenisey II attack 1.40 + Kolomna defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.69

Kolomna attack 0.83 + Yenisey II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Yenisey II scores more
48%
level
24%
Kolomna scores more
28%

Yenisey II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Yenisey II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Yenisey II 5–1 Kolomna

Yenisey II beat Kolomna 5-1 in Second League - Group 2 on May 19, 2025.

The match was played at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Krasnoyarsk.