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Yenisey II vs Kairat Moskva — Second League - Group 2 2020

Yenisey II
Yenisey II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kairat Moskva
Kairat Moskva
4/23/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 4Futbol-arena Enisey

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yenisey II36%
×Draw26%
Kairat Moskva37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yenisey II
1.30
Kairat Moskva
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 15 away

creates per match

Yenisey II
1.40
Kairat Moskva
1.00

allows per match

Yenisey II
1.64
Kairat Moskva
1.20

finishing

Yenisey II+0.00on par
Kairat Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yenisey II ↓

Kairat Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Yenisey II or draw
63%
Yenisey II or Kairat Moskva
74%
Draw or Kairat Moskva
64%

Winning margin

Yenisey II wins by 2+
16%
Kairat Moskva wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Yenisey II 1+ goals
73%
Yenisey II 2+ goals
37%
Yenisey II 3+ goals
14%
Kairat Moskva 1+ goals
73%
Kairat Moskva 2+ goals
38%
Kairat Moskva 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Yenisey II (draw refunded)
49%
Kairat Moskva (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yenisey II at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.64 · 77 matches

Kairat Moskva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yenisey II attack 1.40 + Kairat Moskva defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Kairat Moskva attack 1.00 + Yenisey II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Yenisey II scores more
36%
level
26%
Kairat Moskva scores more
37%

Kairat Moskva at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kairat Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yenisey II vs Kairat Moskva

Yenisey II and Kairat Moskva drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 2 on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Futbol-arena Enisey in Krasnoyarsk.