Yeni Orduspor 0–2 Sarıyer: Result & Stats

Yeni Orduspor

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sarıyer

O. Sol 90'

M. Alsimsek 63' (OG)

10/28/2025

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Yeni Orduspor55%

×Draw23%

Sarıyer22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yeni OrdusporExpected goals in this matchSarıyer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.03

Yeni Orduspor

1.78

Sarıyer

1.03

Yeni Orduspor creates 73% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

0.57

1.50

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Yeni Orduspor

1.00

Sarıyer

0.57

allows per match

Yeni Orduspor

1.50

Sarıyer

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yeni Orduspor+0.00on par

Sarıyer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeni Orduspor ↓

Sarıyer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Yeni Orduspor or draw

78%

Yeni Orduspor or Sarıyer

77%

Draw or Sarıyer

45%

Winning margin

Yeni Orduspor wins by 2+

31%

Sarıyer wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Yeni Orduspor 1+ goals

83%

Yeni Orduspor 2+ goals

53%

Yeni Orduspor 3+ goals

26%

Sarıyer 1+ goals

64%

Sarıyer 2+ goals

28%

Sarıyer 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Yeni Orduspor (draw refunded)

72%

Sarıyer (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeni Orduspor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Sarıyer away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeni Orduspor attack 1.00 + Sarıyer defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.78

Sarıyer attack 0.57 + Yeni Orduspor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Yeni Orduspor scores more

55%

level

23%

Sarıyer scores more

22%

Yeni Orduspor at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Yeni Orduspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'

M. AlsimsekOwn goal

90'

O. Sol

Yeni

Sarıyer

Manager: Bülent Yenihayat

Manager: Servet Cetin