Yeni Malatyaspor 0–5 Ümraniyespor: Result & Stats

Yeni Malatyaspor

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Ümraniyespor

P. Yıldırım 90+4'

B. Çelik 87', 83'

B. Öksüz 24'

Lucas João 17'

3/9/2025

1. Lig · Round 29Yeni Malatya Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Yeni Malatyaspor16%

×Draw20%

Ümraniyespor64%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yeni MalatyasporExpected goals in this matchÜmraniyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

2.13

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.96

Ümraniyespor

2.13

Ümraniyespor creates 122% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 124 away

0.52

creates per match

1.16

3.10

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.52

Ümraniyespor

1.16

allows per match

Yeni Malatyaspor

3.10

Ümraniyespor

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Ümraniyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeni Malatyaspor ↓

Ümraniyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Yeni Malatyaspor or draw

36%

Yeni Malatyaspor or Ümraniyespor

80%

Draw or Ümraniyespor

84%

Winning margin

Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+

5%

Ümraniyespor wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals

62%

Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals

25%

Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals

7%

Ümraniyespor 1+ goals

88%

Ümraniyespor 2+ goals

63%

Ümraniyespor 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)

20%

Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeni Malatyaspor at home — creates 0.52, concedes 3.10 · 29 matches

Ümraniyespor away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.41 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.52 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.96

Ümraniyespor attack 1.16 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Yeni Malatyaspor scores more

16%

level

20%

Ümraniyespor scores more

64%

Ümraniyespor at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ümraniyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

B. Çelik

Ümraniyespor · F

8.7

Match Events

17'

Lucas João↳ E. Kaplan

24'

B. Öksüz↳ Benny

46'

E. Savucu← T. Garip

46'

M. Güler← Ö. Ataş

46'

M. Güneş← S. Göksu

46'

F. Apaydın← E. Kaplan

57'

P. Yıldırım← C. Soukou

57'

B. Çelik← Benny

57'

Y. Sertkaya← F. Apaydın

69'

E. Şişman← M. Ulusoy

69'

M. Ünal← F. Söyler

82'

O. Katipoğlu← H. Atcı

83'

B. Çelik

87'

B. Çelik↳ P. Yıldırım

90+4'

P. Yıldırım↳ A. Babacan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

YeniÜmraniyespor

Overview

38%Possession62%

3Total Shots23

2Corners5

10Fouls12

Shots

3Total Shots23

2On Target10

0Off Target5

1Blocked8

1Inside Box17

2Outside Box6

Passing

38%Possession62%

311Total Passes494

220Accurate Passes424

71%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls12

0Offsides2