Göztepe 0–1 Yeni Malatyaspor: Result & Stats

Göztepe

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Yeni Malatyaspor

B. Tetteh 56'

8/22/2021

League #203 · Round 2Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Göztepe39%

×Draw28%

Yeni Malatyaspor33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GöztepeExpected goals in this matchYeni Malatyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.11

Göztepe

1.24

Yeni Malatyaspor

1.11

Göztepe creates 12% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

1.08

creates per match

0.80

1.42

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Göztepe

1.08

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.80

allows per match

Göztepe

1.42

Yeni Malatyaspor

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Göztepe+0.00on par

Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Yeni Malatyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw

67%

Göztepe or Yeni Malatyaspor

72%

Draw or Yeni Malatyaspor

61%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+

17%

Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals

71%

Göztepe 2+ goals

35%

Göztepe 3+ goals

13%

Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals

67%

Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals

30%

Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)

54%

Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

Yeni Malatyaspor away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 1.08 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.24

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.80 + Göztepe defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Göztepe scores more

39%

level

28%

Yeni Malatyaspor scores more

33%

Göztepe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

B. Tetteh

Yeni Malatyaspor · F

7.7

Match Events

34'

40'

56'

65'

66'

S. Çiftpınar← S. Mallan

76'

E. Özkayımoğlu← A. Jahović

76'

76'

85'

87'

90+2'

90+2'

K. Kanatsızkuş← B. Tetteh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GöztepeYeni

Overview

68%Possession32%

10Total Shots11

4Corners1

8Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots11

3On Target2

5Off Target7

2Blocked2

6Inside Box7

4Outside Box4

Passing

68%Possession32%

535Total Passes266

469Accurate Passes196

88%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

5Offsides1